Here's the prediction from 21st Century Polling:
***************** The Polling Station ********************
Nov. 2, 2004 219,901 Subscribers
Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...
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Greetings Citizen:
This is the day we all have been waiting for. We are sharing
these results with you BEFORE the polls close. Only a few more
hours to see how this experiment plays out. We thought long
and hard about whether to release these numbers prior to the
polls closing. Obviously we decided to send it to our loyal
community, but not release this to the press.
We did not want to influence voting behavior and news of a
landslide might depress voting turn out.
Believe it or not, there are still some undecided voters as
of last night. We were up all night crunching the numbers.
Over 23,000 people participated in this week's national poll.
Thank you all.
The winner by a significant margin will be George Bush.
When it is all said and done, Kerry will have lost for one
basic reason; HE COULD NOT HOLD ONTO HIS BASE! Black voters
practically were unanimous for Clinton. But Bush doubled his
support amongst this group. Even the life-long Democratic black
mayor of East St. Louis, Carl Officer switched over to Bush.
As we have said all along, due to overwhelming responses, we
have decided to keep the community intact. We will have a special
issue outlining how we can all participate in meaningful ways
in the near future.
We have a lot of information to get to you today, so here we
go. One last VERY warm and personal word of appreciation to
each and every one of you who have helped make this such
a wonderful community. We have enjoyed beyond measure working
with you and look forward to moving forward.
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* *
* Please Vote TODAY in *
* the real election *
* *
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We will come up with a special post-election issue to share some
thoughts with the community.
Best,
Henry, Jane, Steve, Deb, Mary, Sean and the ENTIRE Polling
Station team.
PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
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Tell your friend(s) to take the National Opinion Poll by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1955
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~~~~~~~ National Question-Of-The-Week ~~~~~~~
Do you believe that stem cell research should continue?
To take our national opinion poll and make your voice heard, visit:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1954
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/22-11/1:
N = 23,468 Margin of error, +/- .2%
........ Dem ........Ind ........ Rep .... Total
Bush ....1445 ...... 3932 ........ 7466 .... 12,843
Kerry ...7349 ...... 2446 ........ 231 .... 10,026
Nader ... 26 ...... 155 ........ 13 .... 194
Undec. .. 97 ...... 274 ........ 34 .... 405
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Below we have the trends covering the last 4 weeks.
4 Weeks ...3 Weeks...2 Weeks. This Week Change
Bush ..... 48.7% .. 51.9% .. 54.0% ... 54.7% ... + .7%
Kerry ..... 47.8% .. 44.6% .. 42.0% ... 42.7% ... + .7%
Nader ..... 1.0% .. .8% .. 1.0% ... .8% ... - .2%
Undecided . 2.5% .. 2.8% .. 3.0% ... 1.7% ... - 1.3%
You can see that Kerry's high watermark was 4 weeks ago after
the first debate. He has proceeded to implode, almost as if
he was following a script to lose. Even if ALL of the undecided
voters break for Kerry at the last minute, he cannot win.
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Now we are going to take you a bit behind-the-scenes with
the numbers. We are taking the party-balanced numbers above
and re-balance them for CELL PHONE USE.
It is illegal to poll by cell phone and there are 6 million
households that EXCLUSIVELY use them. This means that
they do not have land lines and no poll EXCEPT THIS one will
balance for CELL PHONE users.
We also will predict below how the undecideds will break and
combine this with OTHER third parties (Libertarian, Constitution
Party, Green, etc.) Cell phone users break FOR Kerry as do
undecided voters.
Here is what we found. After balancing all of these factors:
cell phone users, other third parties, and undecided, below is
our prediction for the NATIONAL numbers:
************** Bush .... 51% of the national vote
************** Kerry .... 47% of the national vote
************** Nader .... 1% of the national vote
************** OTHER .... 1% of the national vote
The next President of the United States:
George W. Bush
One MAJOR Caveat: There are an estimated 30 million NEW
registered voters in the country. We did NOT poll or
balance toward this huge pool. IF these break for Kerry in
a major way, we could be wrong. (Let's hope!!)
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We are predicting a significant win for Bush in the popular
vote. We also will be going on the limb and predict the
following states will go for Bush:
Pennsylvania .... Ohio ... Florida ... Iowa ...Arizona
Many of these are needed for Kerry to win the electoral
vote.
Kerry has the following states safely in the win column:
Illinois ... New York ... Massachusetts ... Delaware
We are not calling every state. Some of our numbers by
state are too small to really predict. California is
closer than many think, but will slide for Kerry.
The electoral vote for Bush will exceed 300.
Only Zogby is predicting a Kerry win. We shall soon see.
*************** one more note ********************
We honestly do not care who wins this election. This experiment
has taken on a whole new meaning as the community has shared
their passions. We are continuing this community and will
give you plenty of opportunity to express your views and share
them with the group. Thanks.
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Last Week's Question
Do you think Bill O'Reilly showed bad judgment regarding
his interaction with his producer?
N = 22,984 error +/- .5%
....... Yes ........ No ... Undecided
Bush ...32.4% .... 24.7% .... 42.9% ....
Kerry ...71.0% .... 5.3% .... 23.6% ....
Nader ...43.8% .... 6.3% .... 50.0% ....
Undec ...50.0% .... 8.8% .... 41.2% ....
Over all nationwide results:
49.3% of the total believes O'Reilly showed bad judgment
16.0% of the total believes he did NOT show bad judgment
34.7% of the total are undecided
We have the numbers to show why O'Reilly settled. In many
ways, he was thought to be guilty before the trial. If you
read the detailed transcripts, you got the feeling that the
lurid behavior was caught on audio cassette.
Regardless, his goose was cooked as our national poll
shows.
To View Past Questions & Results Visit:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2282
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Reader Comments
I resent the fact that you phrased the poll question such
that Bill O'Reilley is guilty of that gold digging broad's
accusations. Are we now to prove our innocence? How about
innocent until proven guilty? -Gregg
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George W Bush is not the Anti-Christ...Ronald Wilson Reagan
was... See? Ronald 6 letters, Wilson 6 letters, Reagan 6
letters; hence 666 -M
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The Bookies usually predict the outcome better than the
polls taken. Bookies have more to lose if they are wrong.
The polls have nothing to lose. Latest line in the USA-Bush
59% Kerry 41%; London Bookies have Bush 2 to 1. I've never
bet nor played a lottery but I know Bookies don't like to
lose money and don't care who wins the election as much at
a pollster does. Let's see who has it right this year, the
Bookies say Bush! -Dave
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The two leading candidates are both scum sucking low life
bottom feeders. As the years pass the choices are worse and
worse. Do your homework, both are descendants of the
original 13 families, ya all only think we have broken free
of England, check again. -Evan
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It is unfathomable to me that the American public would re-
elect a man that was never really elected in the first
place and that has not done anything for this country other
than put us deeper in debt. -Rico
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Just a question. Since when did we start calling people who
live in their own country insurgents? By definition we are
the insurgents and they are the liberating force. -Wheeler
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I've loved being a part of this poll. This is how I see
the race shaping out. It is going to be an historic
election...one that may see a drastic change in the methods
of other pollsters. -JP
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Thanks for providing me with the ability to express my
choices. Suzanne Osborne, 57, Democrat, not bound by
partisan politics, can't stand Bush. Hate a liar. -Suzanne
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Your polls, by definition, cannot be valid since they are
so out of line with every single other authorized and
statistically computed poll in the nation. You repeatedly
say you are not biased, but this site is nothing more than
one more Bush propaganda site! I won't open any more of
them! -LS
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Bush to get fired! He and Cheney started this war and
Kerry has to clean it up! I just feel that Bush is cheater
and where will he and the republicans steal this election
this time? -Elizabeth
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Apparently though my husband is living in a state of
delusion and too stupid to know what is REALLY going on,
I am so glad that you have learned the truth from your
air conditioned offices and have enlightened us as to our
Hookah pipe dream. You are ignorant and I feel very sorry
for you. I am sure this will not be printed. - J. Larson
[Yes, he has transmitted the delusion 7000 miles to you,
who seems to need the delusion. -Henry]
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I simply cannot figure you guys out. One minute you seem to
be pro-Bush and the next minute pro-Kerry. The only thing
consistent has been the numbers. What gives? -Jim
[Friends, for that is what we have become, we have ALL
participated in this grand experiment that has PROVEN the
Internet as the premiere polling platform. What started out
as a cold, analytical platform evolved as we added more
analysts to crunch the numbers and read the comments. We
were given the latitude to express our opinions as LONG AS
THEY REMAINED SEPARATED from the numbers.
We have created a community. We are united, not by our
opinions, but our passions. This is even more special than
being right about the election. We shall continue this
experiment as we develop more ways to allow for exchanges
among the group. -Jane]
End of Readers Comments
This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you.
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Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
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Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.
21st Century Campaigns
77 West Wacker Drive #4800
Chicago, Illinois 60601
Ok, so I am not at all happy with their results. It's not the end of the world or anything, but I sure hope they are wrong!
Election day if finally here... yippee... just a couple more days of politics thrust into our lives (another hope that its over tomorrow!)
Vote tomorrow~~Cat
1 comment:
and now we will see how well they predicted.... ~Sie
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