Here are the latest results from 21st Century Polling. (This is an online polling experiment whose hypothesis is they can predict the election more acurately than conventional polls.)
***************** The Polling Station ********************
Oct. 12, 2004 218,105 Subscribers
Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...
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Greetings Citizen:
Well, buckle up folks...we have a race on our hands. For
the first time, Kerry is in real striking distance. There
is now only 1.1% difference between Bush and Kerry, with
Bush in the lead.
So what about those other polls? We show Kerry jumping
after the first debate. Our results were tabulated
on Friday morning and cut off. The other polls, we believe,
were guilty of prematurely showing Kerry neck and neck
because they wanted a horse race. Our numbers were, and
are devoid of games.
Regardless of what your political leanings are, one has
to admit that Bush was rather savaged in the past week
by mainstream media. It is as if they all decided en masse
to go after him. Kerry was the beneficiary of this
onslaught.
Before the comments roll in about us being Rep shills,
we are like Patton after WW II. He said that if he was
stuck between the Nazi army and the Soviet army, he would
attack in both directions. That is what we do with Kerry
and Bush.
Once again, this experiment really goes WAY beyond polling
now. We did not start out this way. But the overwhelming
number of reader comments prove that we have developed a
community...and the unique thing about this experiment is
combining OBJECTIVE numbers with commentary that may or
may not be objective...we have opinions, just like you do.
We just do not like any of the candidates and are not shy
about saying this.
This is unique. Gallop is a big time Republican...Zogby
a Democrat...Everybody knows this. We...are political
agnostics...kind of "polling rebels without a cause."
But what really makes this experiment unique is YOU...
because you participate. Voting and interacting!
We really need you to fill out the poll every week through
the end of this election. We believe that if you participate
in numbers, we will be able to zero in on the results by
state and bring you these numbers on election day.
Best,
Henry, Jane and the Polling Station team.
PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
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Tell your friend(s) to take the National Presidential
Preference Poll by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1955
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~~~~~~~ National Question-Of-The-Week ~~~~~~~
Which of the following issues is most important to you in
deciding for which Presidential candidate you will vote?
- Abortion
- Iraq war
- Health care
To answer this question and retake the Presidential poll, visit:
==> http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1954
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Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/1-10/8:
N = 14,612 Margin of error, +/- .5%
........ Dem ........Ind ........ Rep .... Total
Bush .... 598 ...... 1979 ........ 4544.... 7121
Kerry ...4882 ...... 1886 ........ 221 .... 6989
Nader ... 17 ...... 122 ........ 4 .... 143
Undec. .. 56 ...... 250 ........ 53 .... 359
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Below we have the trends again covering the last 3 weeks.
2 Weeks ago...Last Week...This week... Change
Bush ..... 59.3% ...... 49.7% ..... 48.7% .... - 1.0%
Kerry ..... 42.5% ...... 42.6% ..... 47.8% .... + 5.2%
Nader ..... 1.8% ...... 2.2% ..... 1.0% .... - 1.2%
Undecided . 6.4% ...... 5.4% ..... 2.5% .... - 1.9%
The big story of the week was that undecided voters
really decided...and it appears the overwhelming
percentage went for Kerry after the first debate.
An interesting side note. Both Kerry and Bush's campaigns
put out emails encouraging their lists to vote in online
polls. They are now OPENLY acknowledging that poll results
INFLUENCE elections...which is what we have been saying
all along.
Most polls are created to influence voting behavior.
That is why our experiment is so important. Polls
that showed Kerry in front went by the old adage,
"fake it until you make it." It appears Kerry has
made it now.
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Nationwide Independent Break Down
A total of 4,237 voters identified themselves as
"Independent" last week.
........ Last Week .... This Week
Bush .... 47.8% ..... 46.7%
Kerry .... 36.1% ..... 44.5%
Nader .... 4.8% ..... 2.9%
Undec .... 11.3% ..... 5.9%
A huge shift for Independent voters as they made up
their minds after the first debate. But Bush's solid
support with his base is his strength.
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Last Week's Question
Who do you think won the first Presidential debate?
N = 14,778 error +/- .5%
....... Bush ...... Kerry .... Default to Nader
Bush ...69.9% .... 24.4% .... 5.7% ....
Kerry ... .9% .... 98.6% .... .5% ....
Nader ... 4.8% .... 44.4% .... 50.8% ....
Undec ...19.3% .... 57.9% .... 22.8% ....
Over all nationwide results:
35.0% believe Bush won the debate
60.9% believe Kerry won the debate
4.1% believe Nader won by default
Fascinating results. What this tells us from a cognitive
viewpoint is that we see and hear what we want to see
and hear. 98.6% of Kerry supporters were convinced he won
the first debate. 69.9% of Bush supporters believe that
he won the first debate.
How do you reconcile these two views? Reality has little to do
with the outcome. Our PERCEPTIONS are colored by predetermined
filters...and the reality is not that important.
Bush and Kerry supporters saw the same debate. The same
reality, yet their views are so different. Is it any
wonder that opinions are so strongly held (except for
John Kerry that is...he does not have a strong opinion
on anything)?
To View Past Questions & Results Visit:
==> http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2282
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BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL RESULTS
There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for the
election. We will stick with PA this week to examine.
Pennsylvania N = 663 error +/- 4.5%
......... Dem ..... Ind .... Rep ... Total
Bush ..... 35 ..... 17 .... 266 ... 318
Kerry .... 272 ..... 29 .... 24 ... 325
Nader .... 6 ..... 3 .... 2 ... 11
Undec. ... 3 ..... 1 .... 5 ... 9
Percentages
......... Last Week .......This Week ....Change
Kerry .... 43.0% .......... 49.1% .... + 6.1%
Bush .... 51.4% .......... 48.0% .... - 3.4%
Nader .... 1.6% .......... 1.7% .... + .1%
Undec. ... 3.8% .......... 1.4% .... - 2.4%
Dramatic move in PA by Kerry. The undecided continue
to break for Kerry and Bush continues his slide in
PA with his Republican base...he garnered only 89% of
the declared Republicans...and Kerry has captured the
Independent voters. (PA Rocks!) (and yes, I am for Kerry this time)
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BONUS BATTLEGROUND STATE
Ohio
N = 590 Error +/- 4.5%
Last Week This week
Bush .... 49.0% ..... 50.5%
Kerry .... 44.8% ..... 47.1%
Nader .... 2.4% ..... .8%
Undecided. 3.8% ..... 1.5%
While the difference narrowed, Bush has managed to increase
his overall percentage. We do not know what is so different
between Ohio and Pennsylvania. Ohio is looking very good
for Bush because he is holding onto his base and there are
so few undecided voters in this state. (We can't win them all)
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Reader Comments
..hey they are both Bonesman and the Illuminati will
decide who wins. Do they advance domestic or foreign policy
in next 4 yrs. Alan Keys is my choice. He stands for the
constitution, morality and against activist judges. -JC
[One problem, he is not running for President this time
around. He is losing very badly to Barack Obama for Senate
in Illinois right now.]
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If Alfred E. Newman was running for president, I'd vote for
him in a heart beat. At least that would put a name on the
comedy of the election campaigning. -Ken
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I think Bush did a great deed in the war, but how many
Americans have to lose their jobs because of him. My
husband lost his job because of the unfair trade.- Topsaw
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All your "polls and trends" show Bush ahead. Let's get
the facts right. Kerry is ahead of Bush about 2% according
to national reports. Either state it correctly or quit. -CV
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Let's start or get back to enjoying the fact that people can
disagree, dare I say disagree strongly, and not have to
hate or be hated for it. -CS
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Interesting cognitive experiment going on here. Some
evidence to support just how polarized we are this year
comes from your respondents who are adamant that you are
biased toward the "other side". I'm pretty sure. I check
out your "readers" comments" each week and seems to me,
more and more of the intellectual midgets are contributing
tripe, on your site. -Dave
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If someone hasn't made up their mind by now, we don't need
them to vote. It's scary to think a bunch of wishy-washy
"undecideds" can make such an impact on such an important
election!- KC
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At first, I looked forward to getting your email each week,
because I was trying to figure out if you were a leftie or
a rightie. Now, I have decided that I believe you - you
are neither. I believe you are being honest about this
poll being an experiment. -Brown
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I applaud your experiment simply because your polls seem to
move in trends rather than the bounce that is found other
polls. I do not believe that type of bounce happens, I
believe it's the result of skewed polls or pollsters. -Larry
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All I have to say is keep up the good job! I'm so sick and
tired of seeing "liberal" polls from the LA Time, NY Times,
ABC, etc. that are so one sided. You are making a name for
yourself...not because my candidate is ahead, but because
you have the pulse of the American voter. -George
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I AM A BUSH SUPPORTER BUT I THINK HE DID A SORRY JOB ON THE
LAST DEBATE, HE BETTER LEARN TO STAND UP AND GET WITH ON
WITH THE PROGRAM. - Willard
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Honestly, I am not Republican, not a Democrat---but this is
a pathetic choice we are left with. I defy any logical
person to articulate what Kerry's REAL POSITIONS on Iraq
really are. And Bush, he is an embarrassment to our
country. - Sue
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This week you have come out and said you are ANTI WAR. With
this admission you can no longer claim to be unbiased, even
if you honestly try to be. -Slow Walker
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I am continually amazed at the Democrats and Kerry
supporters who will NOT listen to the facts, as presented.
They do not seem to care about anything but supporting
"their" man. If only we would ALL make decisions based on
fact and not emotion... - AE4
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It took a while and I did think you where for real in what
you first told us about the experiment. You are trying to
get your message out there about the war and that was not
what you first told us. I feel like I have been raped, you
lied. - Purple
[This experiment has evolved over time...and Purple is no
longer part of our community to see this through. That is
a shame.]
End of Readers Comments
This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you...
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Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
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Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.
21st Century Campaigns
77 West Wacker Drive #4800
Chicago, Illinois 60601
2 comments:
I love reading these in your journal...very interesting every time!
*hugs*
This is very interesting. I like how you put bits of things that you find along the way in life in your journal. Polls are fascinating to me. Wonder if this will mean anything. Hmmm... I went and took the poll! We will see if the race is as close as they say it is...
http://journals.aol.com/valphish/ValsThoughts
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