Monday, November 1, 2004

One last time.....

Here's the prediction from 21st Century Polling:


***************** The Polling Station ********************  
Nov. 2, 2004                         219,901 Subscribers  

         Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...  

Greetings Citizen:  

This is the day we all have been waiting for. We are sharing  
these results with you BEFORE the polls close. Only a few more  
hours to see how this experiment plays out. We thought long  
and hard about whether to release these numbers prior to the  
polls closing. Obviously we decided to send it to our loyal  
community, but not release this to the press.  

We did not want to influence voting behavior and news of a  
landslide might depress voting turn out.  

Believe it or not, there are still some undecided voters as  
of last night. We were up all night crunching the numbers.  
Over 23,000 people participated in this week's national poll.  
Thank you all.  

The winner by a significant margin will be George Bush.  

When it is all said and done, Kerry will have lost for one  
basic reason; HE COULD NOT HOLD ONTO HIS BASE! Black voters  
practically were unanimous for Clinton. But Bush doubled his  
support amongst this group. Even the life-long Democratic black  
mayor of East St. Louis, Carl Officer switched over to Bush.  

As we have said all along, due to overwhelming responses, we  
have decided to keep the community intact. We will have a special  
issue outlining how we can all participate in meaningful ways  
in the near future.  

We have a lot of information to get to you today, so here we  
go. One last VERY warm and personal word of appreciation to  
each and every one of you who have helped make this such  
a wonderful community. We have enjoyed beyond measure working  
with you and look forward to moving forward.  

       *                        *  
       *  Please Vote TODAY in  *  
       *   the real election    *  
       *                        *  

We will come up with a special post-election issue to share some  
thoughts with the community.  

Henry, Jane, Steve, Deb, Mary, Sean and the ENTIRE Polling  
Station team.  

PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.  
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:  


Tell your friend(s) to take the National Opinion Poll by visiting:  


     ~~~~~~~  National Question-Of-The-Week  ~~~~~~~  

Do you believe that stem cell research should continue?  

To take our national opinion poll and make your voice heard, visit:  

Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/22-11/1:  

      N = 23,468 Margin of error, +/- .2%  

........ Dem ........Ind ........  Rep .... Total  
Bush ....1445 ...... 3932 ........ 7466 .... 12,843  
Kerry ...7349 ...... 2446 ........  231 .... 10,026  
Nader ...  26 ......  155 ........   13 ....    194  
Undec. ..  97 ......  274 ........   34 ....    405  
   Below we have the trends covering the last 4 weeks.  

          4 Weeks ...3 Weeks...2 Weeks. This Week    Change  

Bush  ..... 48.7% .. 51.9% .. 54.0% ... 54.7% ...  +  .7%  
Kerry ..... 47.8% .. 44.6% .. 42.0% ... 42.7% ...  +  .7%  
Nader .....  1.0% ..   .8% ..  1.0% ...   .8% ...  -  .2%  
Undecided .  2.5% ..  2.8% ..  3.0% ...  1.7% ...  - 1.3%  

You can see that Kerry's high watermark was 4 weeks ago after  
the first debate. He has proceeded to implode, almost as if  
he was following a script to lose. Even if ALL of the undecided  
voters break for Kerry at the last minute, he cannot win.  


Now we are going to take you a bit behind-the-scenes with  
the numbers. We are taking the party-balanced numbers above  
and re-balance them for CELL PHONE USE.  

It is illegal to poll by cell phone and there are 6 million  
households that EXCLUSIVELY use them. This means that  
they do not have land lines and no poll EXCEPT THIS one will  
balance for CELL PHONE users.  

We also will predict below how the undecideds will break and  
combine this with OTHER third parties (Libertarian, Constitution  
Party, Green, etc.) Cell phone users break FOR Kerry as do  
undecided voters.  

Here is what we found. After balancing all of these factors:  
cell phone users, other third parties, and undecided, below is  
our prediction for the NATIONAL numbers:  

************** Bush  .... 51% of the national vote  
************** Kerry .... 47% of the national vote  
************** Nader ....  1% of the national vote  
************** OTHER ....  1% of the national vote  

         The next President of the United States:  

                      George W. Bush  

One MAJOR Caveat: There are an estimated 30 million NEW  
registered voters in the country. We did NOT poll or  
balance toward this huge pool. IF these break for Kerry in  
a major way, we could be wrong.   (Let's hope!!)


We are predicting a significant win for Bush in the popular  
vote. We also will be going on the limb and predict the  
following states will go for Bush:  

Pennsylvania .... Ohio ... Florida ... Iowa ...Arizona  

Many of these are needed for Kerry to win the electoral  

Kerry has the following states safely in the win column:  

Illinois ... New York ... Massachusetts ... Delaware  

We are not calling every state. Some of our numbers by  
state are too small to really predict. California is  
closer than many think, but will slide for Kerry.  

The electoral vote for Bush will exceed 300.  

Only Zogby is predicting a Kerry win. We shall soon see.  

*************** one more note ********************  

We honestly do not care who wins this election. This experiment  
has taken on a whole new meaning as the community has shared  
their passions. We are continuing this community and will  
give you plenty of opportunity to express your views and share  
them with the group. Thanks.  


                 Last Week's Question  

Do you think Bill O'Reilly showed bad judgment regarding  
his interaction with his producer?  

         N = 22,984 error +/- .5%  

....... Yes ........ No   ... Undecided  
Bush  ...32.4%  .... 24.7% ....  42.9% ....  
Kerry ...71.0%  ....  5.3% ....  23.6% ....  
Nader ...43.8%  ....  6.3% ....  50.0% ....  
Undec ...50.0%  ....  8.8% ....  41.2% ....  

Over all nationwide results:  

49.3% of the total believes O'Reilly showed bad judgment  
16.0% of the total believes he did NOT show bad judgment  
34.7% of the total are undecided  

We have the numbers to show why O'Reilly settled. In many  
ways, he was thought to be guilty before the trial. If you  
read the detailed transcripts, you got the feeling that the  
lurid behavior was caught on audio cassette.  

Regardless, his goose was cooked as our national poll  

      To View Past Questions & Results Visit:  


                     Reader Comments  

I resent the fact that you phrased the poll question such  
that Bill O'Reilley is guilty of that gold digging broad's  
accusations. Are we now to prove our innocence? How about  
innocent until proven guilty? -Gregg  


George W Bush is not the Anti-Christ...Ronald Wilson Reagan  
was... See? Ronald 6 letters, Wilson 6 letters, Reagan 6  
letters; hence 666 -M  


The Bookies usually predict the outcome better than the  
polls taken.  Bookies have more to lose if they are wrong.  
The polls have nothing to lose. Latest line in the USA-Bush  
59% Kerry 41%; London Bookies have Bush 2 to 1. I've never  
bet nor played a lottery but I know Bookies don't like to  
lose money and don't care who wins the election as much at  
a pollster does.  Let's see who has it right this year, the  
Bookies say Bush! -Dave  


The two leading candidates are both scum sucking low life  
bottom feeders. As the years pass the choices are worse and  
worse. Do your homework, both are descendants of the  
original 13 families, ya all only think we have broken free  
of England, check again. -Evan  


It is unfathomable to me that the American public would re-  
elect a man that was never really elected in the first  
place and that has not done anything for this country other  
than put us deeper in debt. -Rico  


Just a question. Since when did we start calling people who  
live in their own country insurgents? By definition we are  
the insurgents and they are the liberating force. -Wheeler  


I've loved being a part of this poll.  This is how I see  
the race shaping out.  It is going to be an historic that may see a drastic change in the methods  
of other pollsters. -JP  


Thanks for providing me with the ability to express my  
choices. Suzanne Osborne, 57, Democrat, not bound by  
partisan politics, can't stand Bush. Hate a liar. -Suzanne  


Your polls, by definition, cannot be valid since they are  
so out of line with every single other authorized and  
statistically computed poll in the nation.  You repeatedly  
say you are not biased, but this site is nothing more than  
one more Bush propaganda site!  I won't open any more of  
them! -LS  


Bush to get fired!  He and Cheney started this war and  
Kerry has to clean it up!  I just feel that Bush is cheater  
and where will he and the republicans steal this election  
this time? -Elizabeth  


Apparently though my husband is living in a state of  
delusion and too stupid to know what is REALLY going on,  
I am so glad that you have learned the truth from your  
air conditioned offices and have enlightened us as to our  
Hookah pipe dream.  You are ignorant and I feel very sorry  
for you.  I am sure this will not be printed. - J. Larson  

[Yes, he has transmitted the delusion 7000 miles to you,  
who seems to need the delusion. -Henry]  


I simply cannot figure you guys out. One minute you seem to  
be pro-Bush and the next minute pro-Kerry. The only thing  
consistent has been the numbers. What gives? -Jim  

[Friends, for that is what we have become, we have ALL  
participated in this grand experiment that has PROVEN the  
Internet as the premiere polling platform. What started out  
as a cold, analytical platform evolved as we added more  
analysts to crunch the numbers and read the comments. We  
were given the latitude to express our opinions as LONG AS  
THEY REMAINED SEPARATED from the numbers.  

We have created a community. We are united, not by our  
opinions, but our passions. This is even more special than  
being right about the election. We shall continue this  
experiment as we develop more ways to allow for exchanges  
among the group. -Jane]  

                     End of Readers Comments  

This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,  
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important  
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you.  


Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:  

Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.  
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.  

21st Century Campaigns  
77 West Wacker Drive #4800  
Chicago, Illinois 60601 

Ok, so I am not at all happy with their results.  It's not the end of the world or anything, but I sure hope they are wrong!

Election day if finally here... yippee... just a couple more days of politics thrust into our lives (another hope that its over tomorrow!)

Vote tomorrow~~Cat


1 comment:

sieblonde said...

and now we will see how well they predicted....  ~Sie