Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Another update.....

I have not enabled links this time... if you wish to participate in the poll, please copy/paste the link to your browser.... sorry, just don't have time today......     ***************** The Polling Station ********************  
Oct. 19, 2004                         220,611 Subscribers  

         Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...  

Greetings Citizen:  

We are getting close to the election and something has  
happened in the polling industry; the other polls seem to  
be agreeing with us now. We have NOT CHANGED our methodology  
one iota, so the other polls that are now showing results  
similar to us must have been inventing results.  

Bush was way ahead before and has now edged back up after  
a post-debate Kerry surge. We believe that traditional  
polling outfits did not want to show results so skewed, it  
would have been bad for business.  

Now, we want to ask you to help us out and forward our  
poll to at least 5 friends or family members to get them  
to vote in the online poll. We have had over 80,000 people  
unsubscribe from the Polling Station.  

That is a lot of people who did not like our experiment.  
But we have over 200,000 people who like what we do. Please  
help out and participate in these last few weeks leading  
up to the election. We will be giving a STATE-BY-STATE  
breakdown on election morning.  

We need you to participate and help introduce the Polling  
station to others. We will be keeping the community going  
after the election with some interesting post election  
polling information, so stay tuned and thanks for helping  
us out.  

Henry, Jane and the Polling Station team.  

PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.  
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:  


Tell your friend(s) to take the National Presidential  
Preference Poll by visiting:  


    ~~~~~~~  National Question-Of-The-Week  ~~~~~~~  

     Should we pull US troops out of Iraq after the  
     elections regardless of the consequences?  

To retake the Presidential poll and chime in on the question  
of the week, make your voice heard, visit:  


Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/8-10/15:  

      N = 13,295 Margin of error, +/- .5%  

........ Dem ........Ind ........  Rep .... Total  
Bush .... 709 ...... 2002 ........ 4167 .... 6878  
Kerry ...4216 ...... 1548 ........  171 .... 5935  
Nader ...  25 ......   74 ........   10 ....  109  
Undec. .. 102 ......  231 ........   40 ....  373  
Below we have the trends again covering the last three weeks.  

         2 Weeks ago...Last Week...This week... Change  

Bush  ..... 49.7% ...... 48.7% ..... 51.9% .... + 3.2%  
Kerry ..... 42.6% ...... 47.8% ..... 44.6% .... - 3.2%  
Nader .....  2.2% ......  1.0% .....   .8% .... -  .2%  
Undecided .  5.4% ......  2.5% .....  2.8% .... +  .3%  

Bush has held off the surge Kerry had from the debates.  
Kerry's problem continues to be that people are not  
enthusiastic FOR him...and his base is so much more  
anti-Bush. Being the 'anti-Bush' can only carry you so  
far...and it does not seem to be carrying Kerry to the  

       Nationwide Independent Break Down  

A total of 3,855 voters identified themselves as  
"Independent" last week.  

........ Last Week .... This Week  

Bush  ....  46.7%  .....  51.9%  
Kerry ....  44.5%  .....  40.2%  
Nader ....   2.9%  .....   1.9%  
Undec ....   5.9%  .....   6.0%  

Kerry supporters are wondering "what happened?" We think,  
and we have been consistent on this point, that the only  
major issue that hurts Bush's numbers is Iraq and last week,  
while the news may not have been good over there, the media  
was more interested in domestic policy and the "horse race."  

The volatility of the numbers still suggests that the main-  
stream media will decide this election. For those hundreds of  
people writing comments about how there is a lot of good news  
coming out of Iraq, this fantasy is easily dispelled by sub-  
scribing to the very pro-military publication at  
It is the most honest view of what is going on in Iraq with  
writers like Col. David Hackworth.  

Kerry loses when the topic is anything except Iraq. Abortion?  
Bush wins this issue. Trade policies? Bush wins. Health Care?  
Nobody believes either of a tie goes to Bush.  

Even though Kerry's position on Iraq is not even close to being  
intelligible, he wins this issue completely by default as Bush's  
own conservative wing has abandoned his policies (George Will,  
Tucker Carlson, William Buckley...) Kerry has no real position  
that can be abandoned and he is devoted to keeping it "fuzzy."  


                   Last Week's Question  

Which of the following issues is most important to you in  
deciding for which Presidential candidate you will vote?  

[ ] A Abortion  

[ ] B Iraq war  

[ ] C Health care  

         N = 13,303 error +/- .5%  

..... Abortion .... Iraq   ... Health Care  

Bush  ...22.6%  .... 65.6% ....  11.8% ....  
Kerry ... 7.1%  .... 52.0% ....  40.9% ....  
Nader ... 9.1%  .... 50.0% ....  40.9% ....  
Undec ...10.1%  .... 44.0% ....  45.6% ....  

Over all nationwide results:  

15.2% of the total believes abortion is the #1 issue  
58.8% of the total believes Iraq is the #1 issue  
26.0% of the total believes health care is the #1 issue  

This question was certainly far from perfect. But it was  
designed to get a measure of which issues were most  
important to voters. As we have been saying, the Iraq war  
is the number one issue.  

We stand by our assertion that how the media covers the  
war in the final 3 weeks of the campaign will decide the  
election. Pay attention to the emphasis on Iraq in the  
coming days.  

How is the media going to spin events? How will they choose  
which stories to highlight? If they want Bush out, they  
highlight certain stories that show the chaos. I say  
HIGHLIGHT...which means giving critical stories on Iraq  
that are more than 30 seconds.  

If the media wants Bush to remain in the Whitehouse, they  
will give events short shrift. This is amazing power to  
wield. Kerry, Bush or Nader (Nader who?, have not seen him  
much lately...) run their campaigns, but the mainstream  
media does most of the choosing.  

      To View Past Questions & Results Visit:   



There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for  
the election. We go back to the land of the CHAD to look at  

Florida  N = 905        error +/- 3.5%  

......... Dem ..... Ind .... Rep ... Total  

Bush .....  58 .....  60 .... 352 ... 470  
Kerry .... 329 .....  58 ....  22 ... 409  
Nader ....   2 .....   3 ....   1 ...   6  
Undec. ...   6 .....   6 ....   8 ...  20  



Bush  .... 52.0% ..........  
Kerry .... 45.2% ..........  
Nader ....   .7% ..........  
Undec. ...  2.2% ..........  

This is looking pretty good for Bush. One analyst here is  
predicting that Florida will not be settled before  
Thanksgiving because there are 2000 lawyers waiting to claim  
fraud, no matter which candidate "wins" the state.  




               N = 731 Error +/- 4.5%  
Bush  .... 47.6% .....  
Kerry .... 47.4% .....  
Nader ....  1.0% .....  
Undecided.  4.0% .....  

There was literally one vote difference between Bush and  
Kerry. This state is obviously too close to predict and  
our margin of error too great.  


                   Reader Comments  

You have finally achieved what I have never in my 57 years  
seen. You have put the word "Honest" in front of the word  
"poll". - Carmelite  


Another week, another bias is shown. If you adjust your  
poll numbers to include equal number of Democrat and  
Republican poll takers, Bush is ahead 50.7% (7043 votes)  
to 45.7% (6346 votes). By using 731 more Democratic  
responders, you have falsely increased Kerry's vote  
totals. -Bob  

[There are more Democratic registered voters. If we made the  
numbers to reflect equal numbers for Independents, Democrats  
and Republicans, or Libertarians to prove a point, it would  
not be representative of the nation at large. - Henry]  


"Except for John Kerry that is...he does not have a strong  
opinion on anything" Here is an example of political  
propaganda passed off by the Republican party and shame on  
you for falling for it. To be truly unbiased, little  
comments like this have no place in your emails.  Some  

[There is no rational way to understand Kerry's various  
positions on Iraq. One has to contort one's mind like a  
pretzel to make any sense out of it, or just read George  
Orwell before reading a transcript. Equally absurd is  
Bush's justification for war in Iraq- WMDs- Nope. 9-11  
connection? Nope. Imminent threat? Hardly. Are we biased?  
We are part of this community and will not compromise the  
numbers. This is an experiment- building a community that  
has the pulse of the nation AND interact. - Jane]  


I enjoy participating in this experiment. I wish Bush and  
Kerry would participate in one of their own and keep their  
cheap shots to a limit. They both need to participate in an  
honest debate without the political lines glaring in the  
foreground of all their rhetoric. -garanzazu  


Many of us are really sick of politicians by now! -Patty  

I'll vote Bush (lesser of 2 evils) but here is a Kerry fact  
from the New Republic, March 25 1991. Wallace Carter of  
Newton Centre, Mass. wrote Kerry 2 letters, 9 days apart  
taking both sides of Gulf war (a little trap to catch a  
flip-flop I suppose). Kerry's response was to agree with  
the man wholeheartedly and passionately on both sides of  
the issue of fighting the Gulf War and we should not be  
involved in the Gulf war. -J Crowbird  


How do you expect a regular citizen to be able to answer  
some of your questions that need, to say the least, expert  
knowledge to deal with, like questions about the war in  
Iraq, for example? How could we possibly know what is the  
best thing to do! I suppose you realize that we are missing  
most of the information necessary to answer that.-Jacqueline  
[We believe everybody has an opinion, some more informed  
than others. Just tell us what you think. ]  


I don't believe in polls at all. I really don't know why  
I'm writing. I just know that Mr. Bush gives out-right  
honest straight-forward answers, while Kerry goes around  
in circles. Also, Bush has Christian ethics. Kerry has...  
well, a mouth. -Joe  


I can understand your not liking Kerry since he has no  
principles or convictions and married twice for money - he  
even admitted that in the last debate.  But when you say  
you don't like Bush I know you are Kerry supporters so I'm  
not participating in your polls any more. -PT Tom  


There are so many polls, that if I were to digest all of  
them and try to come up with a rationale, I would be  
totally confused. So, I just read what I can research,  
ignore the TV commercials, and make up my own mind.-Breiter  


When the dust (dirt?) settles after the election, I hope  
you will share with us the results of your experiment,  
including any results that were truly unexpected or even  
surprising from time to time, and what you believe the  
underlying causes may have been. -Anne  


As an undecided independent, I could not partake in this  
week's poll - the reason being, that there is not ONE  
important issue that will cause me to vote for either Bush  
or Kerry and frankly, I am concerned about voters for  
either candidate who think that one of these three issues  
is important enough in their decision-making process. -M  

               End of Readers Comments  

This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,  
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important  
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you.  


Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:  

Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.  
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.  

21st Century Campaigns  
77 West Wacker Drive #4800  
Chicago, Illinois 60601 

No comments: