I have not enabled links this time... if you wish to participate in the poll, please copy/paste the link to your browser.... sorry, just don't have time today......
***************** The Polling Station ********************
Oct. 19, 2004 220,611 Subscribers
Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...
***********************************************************
Greetings Citizen:
We are getting close to the election and something has
happened in the polling industry; the other polls seem to
be agreeing with us now. We have NOT CHANGED our methodology
one iota, so the other polls that are now showing results
similar to us must have been inventing results.
Bush was way ahead before and has now edged back up after
a post-debate Kerry surge. We believe that traditional
polling outfits did not want to show results so skewed, it
would have been bad for business.
Now, we want to ask you to help us out and forward our
poll to at least 5 friends or family members to get them
to vote in the online poll. We have had over 80,000 people
unsubscribe from the Polling Station.
That is a lot of people who did not like our experiment.
But we have over 200,000 people who like what we do. Please
help out and participate in these last few weeks leading
up to the election. We will be giving a STATE-BY-STATE
breakdown on election morning.
We need you to participate and help introduce the Polling
station to others. We will be keeping the community going
after the election with some interesting post election
polling information, so stay tuned and thanks for helping
us out.
Best,
Henry, Jane and the Polling Station team.
PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tell your friend(s) to take the National Presidential
Preference Poll by visiting:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1955
--------------------------------------------------------------
~~~~~~~ National Question-Of-The-Week ~~~~~~~
Should we pull US troops out of Iraq after the
elections regardless of the consequences?
To retake the Presidential poll and chime in on the question
of the week, make your voice heard, visit:
==> http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1954
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/8-10/15:
N = 13,295 Margin of error, +/- .5%
........ Dem ........Ind ........ Rep .... Total
Bush .... 709 ...... 2002 ........ 4167 .... 6878
Kerry ...4216 ...... 1548 ........ 171 .... 5935
Nader ... 25 ...... 74 ........ 10 .... 109
Undec. .. 102 ...... 231 ........ 40 .... 373
----------------------------------
Below we have the trends again covering the last three weeks.
2 Weeks ago...Last Week...This week... Change
Bush ..... 49.7% ...... 48.7% ..... 51.9% .... + 3.2%
Kerry ..... 42.6% ...... 47.8% ..... 44.6% .... - 3.2%
Nader ..... 2.2% ...... 1.0% ..... .8% .... - .2%
Undecided . 5.4% ...... 2.5% ..... 2.8% .... + .3%
Bush has held off the surge Kerry had from the debates.
Kerry's problem continues to be that people are not
enthusiastic FOR him...and his base is so much more
anti-Bush. Being the 'anti-Bush' can only carry you so
far...and it does not seem to be carrying Kerry to the
Presidency.
---------------------------------
Nationwide Independent Break Down
A total of 3,855 voters identified themselves as
"Independent" last week.
........ Last Week .... This Week
Bush .... 46.7% ..... 51.9%
Kerry .... 44.5% ..... 40.2%
Nader .... 2.9% ..... 1.9%
Undec .... 5.9% ..... 6.0%
Kerry supporters are wondering "what happened?" We think,
and we have been consistent on this point, that the only
major issue that hurts Bush's numbers is Iraq and last week,
while the news may not have been good over there, the media
was more interested in domestic policy and the "horse race."
The volatility of the numbers still suggests that the main-
stream media will decide this election. For those hundreds of
people writing comments about how there is a lot of good news
coming out of Iraq, this fantasy is easily dispelled by sub-
scribing to the very pro-military publication at Military.com.
It is the most honest view of what is going on in Iraq with
writers like Col. David Hackworth.
Kerry loses when the topic is anything except Iraq. Abortion?
Bush wins this issue. Trade policies? Bush wins. Health Care?
Nobody believes either of them...so a tie goes to Bush.
Even though Kerry's position on Iraq is not even close to being
intelligible, he wins this issue completely by default as Bush's
own conservative wing has abandoned his policies (George Will,
Tucker Carlson, William Buckley...) Kerry has no real position
that can be abandoned and he is devoted to keeping it "fuzzy."
----------------------------------------------------------
Last Week's Question
Which of the following issues is most important to you in
deciding for which Presidential candidate you will vote?
[ ] A Abortion
[ ] B Iraq war
[ ] C Health care
N = 13,303 error +/- .5%
..... Abortion .... Iraq ... Health Care
Bush ...22.6% .... 65.6% .... 11.8% ....
Kerry ... 7.1% .... 52.0% .... 40.9% ....
Nader ... 9.1% .... 50.0% .... 40.9% ....
Undec ...10.1% .... 44.0% .... 45.6% ....
Over all nationwide results:
15.2% of the total believes abortion is the #1 issue
58.8% of the total believes Iraq is the #1 issue
26.0% of the total believes health care is the #1 issue
This question was certainly far from perfect. But it was
designed to get a measure of which issues were most
important to voters. As we have been saying, the Iraq war
is the number one issue.
We stand by our assertion that how the media covers the
war in the final 3 weeks of the campaign will decide the
election. Pay attention to the emphasis on Iraq in the
coming days.
How is the media going to spin events? How will they choose
which stories to highlight? If they want Bush out, they
highlight certain stories that show the chaos. I say
HIGHLIGHT...which means giving critical stories on Iraq
that are more than 30 seconds.
If the media wants Bush to remain in the Whitehouse, they
will give events short shrift. This is amazing power to
wield. Kerry, Bush or Nader (Nader who?, have not seen him
much lately...) run their campaigns, but the mainstream
media does most of the choosing.
To View Past Questions & Results Visit:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2282
***
BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL RESULTS
There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for
the election. We go back to the land of the CHAD to look at
Florida.
Florida N = 905 error +/- 3.5%
......... Dem ..... Ind .... Rep ... Total
Bush ..... 58 ..... 60 .... 352 ... 470
Kerry .... 329 ..... 58 .... 22 ... 409
Nader .... 2 ..... 3 .... 1 ... 6
Undec. ... 6 ..... 6 .... 8 ... 20
Percentages
.........
Bush .... 52.0% ..........
Kerry .... 45.2% ..........
Nader .... .7% ..........
Undec. ... 2.2% ..........
This is looking pretty good for Bush. One analyst here is
predicting that Florida will not be settled before
Thanksgiving because there are 2000 lawyers waiting to claim
fraud, no matter which candidate "wins" the state.
-----------------------------------------------------------
BONUS BATTLEGROUND STATE
Michigan
N = 731 Error +/- 4.5%
Bush .... 47.6% .....
Kerry .... 47.4% .....
Nader .... 1.0% .....
Undecided. 4.0% .....
There was literally one vote difference between Bush and
Kerry. This state is obviously too close to predict and
our margin of error too great.
***********************************************************
Reader Comments
You have finally achieved what I have never in my 57 years
seen. You have put the word "Honest" in front of the word
"poll". - Carmelite
---------------
Another week, another bias is shown. If you adjust your
poll numbers to include equal number of Democrat and
Republican poll takers, Bush is ahead 50.7% (7043 votes)
to 45.7% (6346 votes). By using 731 more Democratic
responders, you have falsely increased Kerry's vote
totals. -Bob
[There are more Democratic registered voters. If we made the
numbers to reflect equal numbers for Independents, Democrats
and Republicans, or Libertarians to prove a point, it would
not be representative of the nation at large. - Henry]
---------------
"Except for John Kerry that is...he does not have a strong
opinion on anything" Here is an example of political
propaganda passed off by the Republican party and shame on
you for falling for it. To be truly unbiased, little
comments like this have no place in your emails. Some
'experiment'.-EU
[There is no rational way to understand Kerry's various
positions on Iraq. One has to contort one's mind like a
pretzel to make any sense out of it, or just read George
Orwell before reading a transcript. Equally absurd is
Bush's justification for war in Iraq- WMDs- Nope. 9-11
connection? Nope. Imminent threat? Hardly. Are we biased?
We are part of this community and will not compromise the
numbers. This is an experiment- building a community that
has the pulse of the nation AND interact. - Jane]
---------------
I enjoy participating in this experiment. I wish Bush and
Kerry would participate in one of their own and keep their
cheap shots to a limit. They both need to participate in an
honest debate without the political lines glaring in the
foreground of all their rhetoric. -garanzazu
---------------
Many of us are really sick of politicians by now! -Patty
---------------
I'll vote Bush (lesser of 2 evils) but here is a Kerry fact
from the New Republic, March 25 1991. Wallace Carter of
Newton Centre, Mass. wrote Kerry 2 letters, 9 days apart
taking both sides of Gulf war (a little trap to catch a
flip-flop I suppose). Kerry's response was to agree with
the man wholeheartedly and passionately on both sides of
the issue of fighting the Gulf War and we should not be
involved in the Gulf war. -J Crowbird
---------------
How do you expect a regular citizen to be able to answer
some of your questions that need, to say the least, expert
knowledge to deal with, like questions about the war in
Iraq, for example? How could we possibly know what is the
best thing to do! I suppose you realize that we are missing
most of the information necessary to answer that.-Jacqueline
[We believe everybody has an opinion, some more informed
than others. Just tell us what you think. ]
---------------
I don't believe in polls at all. I really don't know why
I'm writing. I just know that Mr. Bush gives out-right
honest straight-forward answers, while Kerry goes around
in circles. Also, Bush has Christian ethics. Kerry has...
well, a mouth. -Joe
---------------
I can understand your not liking Kerry since he has no
principles or convictions and married twice for money - he
even admitted that in the last debate. But when you say
you don't like Bush I know you are Kerry supporters so I'm
not participating in your polls any more. -PT Tom
---------------
There are so many polls, that if I were to digest all of
them and try to come up with a rationale, I would be
totally confused. So, I just read what I can research,
ignore the TV commercials, and make up my own mind.-Breiter
---------------
When the dust (dirt?) settles after the election, I hope
you will share with us the results of your experiment,
including any results that were truly unexpected or even
surprising from time to time, and what you believe the
underlying causes may have been. -Anne
---------------
As an undecided independent, I could not partake in this
week's poll - the reason being, that there is not ONE
important issue that will cause me to vote for either Bush
or Kerry and frankly, I am concerned about voters for
either candidate who think that one of these three issues
is important enough in their decision-making process. -M
End of Readers Comments
This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052
***********************************************************
Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.
21st Century Campaigns
77 West Wacker Drive #4800
Chicago, Illinois 60601
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