Tuesday, October 12, 2004

An Update....

Here are the latest results from 21st Century Polling.  (This is an online polling experiment whose hypothesis is they can predict the election more acurately than conventional polls.) 

***************** The Polling Station ********************  
Oct. 12, 2004                         218,105 Subscribers  

         Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...  

Greetings Citizen:  

Well, buckle up folks...we have a race on our hands. For  
the first time, Kerry is in real striking distance. There  
is now only 1.1% difference between Bush and Kerry, with  
Bush in the lead.  

So what about those other polls? We show Kerry jumping  
after the first debate. Our results were tabulated  
on Friday morning and cut off. The other polls, we believe,  
were guilty of prematurely showing Kerry neck and neck  
because they wanted a horse race. Our numbers were, and  
are devoid of games.  

Regardless of what your political leanings are, one has  
to admit that Bush was rather savaged in the past week  
by mainstream media. It is as if they all decided en masse  
to go after him. Kerry was the beneficiary of this  

Before the comments roll in about us being Rep shills,  
we are like Patton after WW II. He said that if he was  
stuck between the Nazi army and the Soviet army, he would  
attack in both directions. That is what we do with Kerry  
and Bush.  

Once again, this experiment really goes WAY beyond polling  
now. We did not start out this way. But the overwhelming  
number of reader comments prove that we have developed a  
community...and the unique thing about this experiment is  
combining OBJECTIVE numbers with commentary that may or  
may not be objective...we have opinions, just like you do.  
We just do not like any of the candidates and are not shy  
about saying this.  

This is unique. Gallop is a big time Republican...Zogby  
a Democrat...Everybody knows this. We...are political  
agnostics...kind of "polling rebels without a cause."  
But what really makes this experiment unique is YOU...  
because you participate. Voting and interacting!  

We really need you to fill out the poll every week through  
the end of this election. We believe that if you participate  
in numbers, we will be able to zero in on the results by  
state and bring you these numbers on election day.  


Henry, Jane and the Polling Station team.  

PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.  
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:  


Tell your friend(s) to take the National Presidential  
Preference Poll by visiting:  


   ~~~~~~~  National Question-Of-The-Week  ~~~~~~~  

Which of the following issues is most important to you in  
deciding for which Presidential candidate you will vote?  

- Abortion  
- Iraq war  
- Health care  

To answer this question and retake the Presidential poll, visit:  

==>  http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=1954   



Total number of polls filled out for dates 10/1-10/8:  

      N = 14,612 Margin of error, +/- .5%  

........ Dem ........Ind ........  Rep .... Total  
Bush .... 598 ...... 1979 ........ 4544.... 7121  
Kerry ...4882 ...... 1886 ........  221 .... 6989  
Nader ...  17 ......  122 ........    4 ....  143  
Undec. ..  56 ......  250 ........   53 ....  359  

Below we have the trends again covering the last 3 weeks.  

      2 Weeks ago...Last Week...This week... Change  

Bush  ..... 59.3% ...... 49.7% ..... 48.7% .... - 1.0%  
Kerry ..... 42.5% ...... 42.6% ..... 47.8% .... + 5.2%  
Nader .....  1.8% ......  2.2% .....  1.0% .... - 1.2%  
Undecided .  6.4% ......  5.4% .....  2.5% .... - 1.9%  

The big story of the week was that undecided voters  
really decided...and it appears the overwhelming  
percentage went for Kerry after the first debate.  

An interesting side note. Both Kerry and Bush's campaigns  
put out emails encouraging their lists to vote in online  
polls. They are now OPENLY acknowledging that poll results  
INFLUENCE elections...which is what we have been saying  
all along.  

Most polls are created to influence voting behavior.  
That is why our experiment is so important. Polls  
that showed Kerry in front went by the old adage,  
"fake it until you make it." It appears Kerry has  
made it now.  

       Nationwide Independent Break Down  

A total of 4,237 voters identified themselves as  
"Independent" last week.  

........ Last Week .... This Week  

Bush  ....  47.8%  .....  46.7%  
Kerry ....  36.1%  .....  44.5%  
Nader ....   4.8%  .....   2.9%  
Undec ....  11.3%  .....   5.9%  

A huge shift for Independent voters as they made up  
their minds after the first debate. But Bush's solid  
support with his base is his strength.  


                 Last Week's Question  

Who do you think won the first Presidential debate?  

         N = 14,778 error +/- .5%  

....... Bush  ...... Kerry   .... Default to Nader  
Bush  ...69.9%  .... 24.4% ....   5.7% ....  
Kerry ...  .9%  .... 98.6% ....    .5% ....  
Nader ... 4.8%  .... 44.4% ....  50.8% ....  
Undec ...19.3%  .... 57.9% ....  22.8% ....  

             John Kerry
Over all nationwide results:  

35.0% believe Bush won the debate  
60.9% believe Kerry won the debate  
4.1% believe Nader won by default  

Fascinating results. What this tells us from a cognitive  
viewpoint is that we see and hear what we want to see  
and hear. 98.6% of Kerry supporters were convinced he won  
the first debate. 69.9% of Bush supporters believe that  
he won the first debate.  

How do you reconcile these two views? Reality has little to do  
with the outcome. Our PERCEPTIONS are colored by predetermined  
filters...and the reality is not that important.  

Bush and Kerry supporters saw the same debate. The same  
reality, yet their views are so different. Is it any  
wonder that opinions are so strongly held (except for  
John Kerry that is...he does not have a strong opinion  
on anything)?  

         To View Past Questions & Results Visit:  
==>  http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2282   



There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for the  
election. We will stick with PA this week to examine.  

Pennsylvania  N = 663        error +/- 4.5%  

......... Dem ..... Ind .... Rep ... Total  

Bush .....  35 .....  17 .... 266 ... 318  
Kerry .... 272 .....  29 ....  24 ... 325  
Nader ....   6 .....   3 ....   2 ...  11  
Undec. ...   3 .....   1 ....   5 ...   9  


......... Last Week .......This Week ....Change  

Kerry .... 43.0% ..........  49.1%  .... + 6.1%  
Bush  .... 51.4% ..........  48.0%  .... - 3.4%  
Nader ....  1.6% ..........   1.7%  .... +  .1%  
Undec. ...  3.8% ..........   1.4%  .... - 2.4%  

Dramatic move in PA by Kerry. The undecided continue  
to break for Kerry and Bush continues his slide in  
PA with his Republican base...he garnered only 89% of  
the declared Republicans...and Kerry has captured the  
Independent voters.   (PA Rocks!) (and yes, I am for Kerry this time)




               N = 590 Error +/- 4.5%  
          Last Week    This week  

Bush  .... 49.0% ..... 50.5%  
Kerry .... 44.8% ..... 47.1%  
Nader ....  2.4% .....   .8%  
Undecided.  3.8% .....  1.5%  
While the difference narrowed, Bush has managed to increase  
his overall percentage. We do not know what is so different  
between Ohio and Pennsylvania. Ohio is looking very good  
for Bush because he is holding onto his base and there are  
so few undecided voters in this state.   (We can't win them all)

                President George W. Bush


                     Reader Comments  

..hey they are both Bonesman and the Illuminati will  
decide who wins. Do they advance domestic or foreign policy  
in next 4 yrs. Alan Keys is my choice. He stands for the  
constitution, morality and against activist judges. -JC  

[One problem, he is not running for President this time  
around. He is losing very badly to Barack Obama for Senate  
in Illinois right now.]  


If Alfred E. Newman was running for president, I'd vote for  
him in a heart beat. At least that would put a name on the  
comedy of the election campaigning. -Ken  


I think Bush did a great deed in the war, but how many  
Americans have to lose their jobs because of him. My  
husband lost his job because of the unfair trade.- Topsaw  


All your "polls and trends" show Bush ahead.  Let's get  
the facts right. Kerry is ahead of Bush about 2% according  
to national reports. Either state it correctly or quit. -CV  


Let's start or get back to enjoying the fact that people can  
disagree, dare I say disagree strongly, and not have to  
hate or be hated for it. -CS  


Interesting cognitive experiment going on here.  Some  
evidence to support just how polarized we are this year  
comes from your respondents who are adamant that you are  
biased toward the "other side". I'm pretty sure. I check  
out your "readers" comments" each week and seems to me,  
more and more of the intellectual midgets are contributing  
tripe, on your site.  -Dave  


If someone hasn't made up their mind by now, we don't need  
them to vote.  It's scary to think a bunch of wishy-washy  
"undecideds" can make such an impact on such an important  
election!- KC  


At first, I looked forward to getting your email each week,  
because I was trying to figure out if you were a leftie or  
a rightie.  Now, I have decided that I believe you - you  
are neither.  I believe you are being honest about this  
poll being an experiment. -Brown  


I applaud your experiment simply because your polls seem to  
move in trends rather than the bounce that is found other  
polls. I do not believe that type of bounce happens, I  
believe it's the result of skewed polls or pollsters. -Larry  


All I have to say is keep up the good job! I'm so sick and  
tired of seeing "liberal" polls from the LA Time, NY Times,  
ABC, etc. that are so one sided. You are making a name for  
yourself...not because my candidate is ahead, but because  
you have the pulse of the American voter. -George  




Honestly, I am not Republican, not a Democrat---but this is  
a pathetic choice we are left with. I defy any logical  
person to articulate what Kerry's REAL POSITIONS on Iraq  
really are. And Bush, he is an embarrassment to our  
country. - Sue  


This week you have come out and said you are ANTI WAR. With  
this admission you can no longer claim to be unbiased, even  
if you honestly try to be. -Slow Walker  


I am continually amazed at the Democrats and Kerry  
supporters who will NOT listen to the facts, as presented.  
They do not seem to care about anything but supporting  
"their" man.  If only we would ALL make decisions based on  
fact and not emotion... - AE4  


It took a while and I did think you where for real in what  
you first told us about the experiment.  You are trying to  
get your message out there about the war and that was not  
what you first told us.  I feel like I have been raped, you  
lied. - Purple  

[This experiment has evolved over time...and Purple is no  
longer part of our community to see this through. That is  
a shame.]  

              End of Readers Comments  

This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,  
have a great week. The tighter the race, the more important  
it is to participate by voting in our poll. Thank you...  


Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:  

Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.  
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.  

21st Century Campaigns  
77 West Wacker Drive #4800  
Chicago, Illinois 60601  


redbaranjj said...

I love reading these in your journal...very interesting every time!

valphish said...

This is very interesting.  I like how you put bits of things that you find along the way in life in your journal.  Polls are fascinating to me.  Wonder if this will mean anything.  Hmmm...  I went and took the poll!  We will see if the race is as close as they say it is...