Tuesday, September 28, 2004

Here's a Poll for you

 

Ok, folks, this is beyond my normal repertoire..but I like this one.  The site is an investigation by a company who is participating in a grand experiment utilizing the Internet for gathering information. They think that they will be able to predict the election better than conventional polls, most of which have been wrong two elections in a row. 

***************** The Polling Station *********************  
Sept. 28, 2004                         219,164 Subscribers  

         Results You Will Not See Anywhere Else...  
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Greetings Citizen:  

This weekly publication is something completely new...one that  
mixes polling with unusual political insights. The commentary  
is subjective...the numbers presented are not. An open  
blend of subjective analysis and raw numbers.  

We stated last week that those that viewed MAINSTREAM PRESS,  
including CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN were MORE LIKELY to vote for  
Bush than Kerry. We received a flood of email like the one from  
Merlin below:  

"How could you possibly think that by watching CBS would make  
someone vote for President Bush?"  

First, our statement was not quite as strong as watching CBS  
or mainstream media would "make" someone vote for Bush, but  
our statement stands. Here is why.  

We have been saying that Bush's numbers go down ONLY WHEN IRAQ  
IS IN THE HEADLINES. Last week, Kerry and the mainstream press  
decided to put Iraq back in the headlines. Bush dropped a  
significant amount (see results below).  

We believe the mainstream press has NOT covered Iraq very  
well. They have allowed disinformation on Iraq to be accepted  
by 50%. Half of the people reading this right now believe  
Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9-11.  

The mainstream press, to their discredit has COLLECTIVELY done  
a poor job and the only benefactor of this miserable job has  
been Bush. If you listen to the BBC, or consume online media  
like InformationClearingHouse.info, stop in to AntiWar.com, read  
Asia Times online, MediaChannel.org, Viewpoint and many more  
alternative online publications, 50% would not believe this  
factual error. This factual error is key and designed for a  
purpose.  

I realize that we will anger 50% of our readers. Those that  
continue to believe in the fiction of a Saddam/9-11 connection.  
But that is what makes our publication unique!  

Now, the mainstream media STILL WILL DECIDE this election. They  
collectively put Clinton in the White House when Bush I had an  
approval rating of 91% after the first Gulf War. If they decide  
to dump Bush II, they will by changing the nightly news agenda.  

Pay attention to the lead stories...the images. This analysis  
is NOT pro-Kerry....nor is it anti-Bush. It is an analysis of  
MAINSTREAM MEDIA...for which we hold in complete contempt across  
the board.  

Our preference for Kerry, Bush or Nader for that matter is not  
even close to the issue. The way the media presents polls, the  
way they cover the news, etc. is all designed to manipulate us.  
THIS is our bias...not for one candidate over another.  

That is why we ask an interesting question this week. Are these  
candidates the best we can muster? Please participate!  

Regards,  
Henry, Jane and the Polling Station team  

PS. To reach us, please do not reply to this message.  
Give us feedback or your comments by visiting:  
http://www.21stcenturycampaigns.com/poll-comments.html  


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Tell your friend(s) to take the National Presidential  
Preference Poll by visiting:  
   http://www.takepolls.com/friend/tell.asp  

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                 Last Week's Question  

Do you believe gays and lesbians should have the right to  
marry with full partner benefits?  

         N = 17,793  error +/- .5%  

....... Yes  ......  No   ....  Undec ....  
  
Bush  ... 9.3%  .... 86.3% ....   4.4% ....  
Kerry ...69.6%  .... 22.4% ....   8.0% ....  
Nader ...56.3%  .... 39.8% ....   4.0% ....  
Undec ...50.7%  .... 43.7% ....   5.6% ....  


Over all nationwide results:  

38.4% believe in gay marriage with full benefits  
55.6% believe we should not have gay marriage with full benefits  
6.0% are undecided  

We found a question that almost all people have an opinion.  
This is the lowest "undecided" percentage tabulated since  
we started doing this poll.  

      To View Past Questions & Results Visit:  
   http://www.takepolls.com/21st/Question/index.html  

        ******************************************  


    ~~~~~~~  NEW National Question-Of-The-Week  ~~~~~~~  


     If you had the power to make any living US citizen  
     President, would Bush, Kerry or Nader be your choice?  


To retake the Presidential poll and chime in on the question  
of the week, make your voice heard, visit:  
  
Question of the Week
  


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~      
Total number of polls filled out for dates 9/17-9/24:  


     N = 17,993 Margin of error, +/- .5%  

........ Dem ........Ind ........  Rep .... Total  
Bush .... 862 ...... 2365 ........ 5546 .... 8773  
Kerry ...5501 ...... 1857 ........  199 .... 7557  
Nader ...  65 ......  240 ........   22 ....  327  
Undec. .. 333 ......  699 ........  104 .... 1136  
----------------------------------  
  
Below we have the trends again covering the last three weeks.  

         2 Weeks ago...Last Week...This week... Change  

Bush  ..... 53.4% ...... 50.1% ..... 49.3% .... -  .8%  
Kerry ..... 43.0% ...... 42.9% ..... 42.5% .... -  .4%  
Nader .....  1.2% ......  2.1% .....  1.8% .... -  .3%  
Undecided .  2.9% ......  2.4% .....  6.4% .... + 4.0%  

This is really fascinating. BOTH Kerry and Bush declined  
significantly. They are increasing each other's negatives.  

Which is actually easy to do because they both lend them-  
selves to negatives easily. The war in Iraq will cripple  
Bush IF THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA WANTS IT THIS WAY. But Kerry  
cannot capitalize on this very well because his policy du  
jour on Iraq is at best confusing (Today is Tuesday, we  
think he is against the war on Tuesdays...)   (they crack me up)

But the reality on-the-ground in Iraq is overwhelmingly  
terrible and IF the news gets onto the television screens,  
Bush will lose this election, completely by default.  

That is a bold prediction...with weeks to go.  

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       Nationwide Independent Break Down  

A total of 5,161 voters identified themselves as  
"Independent" last week.   (I'm one)

........ Last Week .... This Week  

Bush  ....  49.1%  .....  45.8%  
Kerry ....  35.7%  .....  36.0%  
Nader ....   5.3%  .....   4.7%  
Undec ....   9.9%  .....  13.5%  

These numbers are really getting to be something else!  
How does one interpret these numbers? For the second  
straight week, Independents have fled Bush, but did not  
flock to Kerry.  

Instead, they went into the "undecided" column. Independents  
represent approximately 30% of the electorate. Kerry  
supporters hope they break for him...this is obvious. But  
there is a chance they will not vote at all...a very good  
chance.  

Judging from our email, this seems highly likely.   

 
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             Bonus - How do Women Vote  

                  N = 8,885  error +/- .5%  

Bush ..... 47.0%  
Kerry .... 43.3%  
Nader ....  1.9%  
Undec.....  7.8%  

Women are less enthusiastic for Bush than their male counter-  
parts. But they do not necessarily care much more for Kerry.  
Instead, they are more undecided...which is actually not good  
news for Bush.  

Kerry is banking on undecided voters to break his way. In order  
to make it easier for women to vote for him, Kerry has now become  
more anti-war. Women are against the war in Iraq more than men.  

Kerry does not necessarily believe in what he is saying now, he  
is now becoming convinced that he cannot win this race by being  
Bush-lite.  

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           BATTLEGROUND STATE POLL RESULTS  

There are 17 states that represent the "battleground" for the  
election. We will stick with PA this week to examine.  

Pennsylvania  N = 871        error +/- 4.5%  



......... Dem ..... Ind .... Rep ... Total  

Bush .....  70 .....  27 .... 355 ... 452  
Kerry .... 321 .....  25 ....  19 ... 365  
Nader ....   3 .....   3 ....   1 ...   7  
Undec. ...  23 .....   9 ....  15 ...  47  

                    Percentages  

......... Last Week .......This Week ....Change  

Bush  .... 50.1% ..........  51.9%  .... + 1.8%  
Kerry .... 44.9% ..........  41.9%  .... - 3.0%  
Nader ....  1.1% ..........    .8%  .... -  .3%  
Undec. ...  3.9% ..........   5.4%  .... + 1.5%  

Last week, Republicans started leaving Bush. This week,  
Kerry is in deep disarray with Democrats, only getting  
77% of the Democratic vote. More people are undecided,  
but whatever Bush is doing in PA, he will keep doing  
it.  

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                BONUS BATTLEGROUND STATE  

                      Illinois  


                  N = 607 Error +/- 2.5%  

Kerry .... 46.2%  
Bush  .... 45.7%  
Nader ....  2.1%  
Undecided.  5.9%  

Wow...this is interesting. We were not even thinking this  
was a battleground state. No other poll has the race this  
close. With Barrack Obama being the new golden boy of the  
Democratic party, most people put Illinois into the "win"  
column for Kerry.  

But Bush is showing very strong and Kerry will have to  
divert money from other states now to Illinois. Unless  
Mayor Daley can get the dead people to vote in the  
same numbers as his father did in 1960, Kerry has a  
tough race in Illinois.  


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                     Reader Comments  

I did not like your question.  I believe gays should get  
same benefits, but MARRIAGE is defined as man and woman.  
Same sex Union with same benefits is what I vote for.-Jason  

[We received hundreds of comments with the same sentiment.]  

---Ironic-Comment-Of-The-Week---  

Why are you soliciting voters on a sleazy joke email list?  
Are you that desperate for pollsters?  

[Why are you reading sleazy joke lists?]  

--------------------  

I wonder how many Bush lovers are aware of the fact that  
Bush is planning a draft in 2005 of young men and women  
ages 18 thru 25, including college students. How will the  
parents react to that news?- Ann  

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I am a political poll caller for different candidates in my  
county. I call all party affiliations. It is interesting to  
me that during my calling I have more people telling me " I  
am not voting this year!" They fear the out come, no matter  
who they choose, it's going to be disastrous! - PattyAnn  

----------------------  

The more I receive your emails the more convinced I become  
that you are nothing more than a Kerry stooge.  PLEASE CUT  
YOUR BIAS -- IF YOU ARE TRULY FAIR THEN DO NO MORE THAN  
REPORT YOUR POLLING RESULTS IN NUMBERS.  LEAVE OUT THE  
RHETORIC AND YOUR OPINIONS.  POLLS ARE FOR THE PEOPLE'S  
OPINIONS, NOT THE ORIGINATOR OF THE SURVEY. I've done  
survey work for over 40 years and you are becoming more and  
more off base from what real surveys convey. - My deer  

[Get the abacus- a dinosaur weighs in.]  

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Don't people realize that a vote for Nader is a vote for  
Bush? - Mardy  

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I just wanted to say again how much I am enjoying  
participating in your "experiment". Being a scientist  
myself, it is fun to see REAL STATISTICS being used for the  
prez race, not warmed over cooperate agendas. -Ranch Babe  

------------------------  

Anyone who believes that America is safer, or that Iraq is  
somehow related to 9/11, has most assuredly had a full  
lobotomy!  Frank  

[Over 50% of polled voters believe that Saddam had  
something to do with 9-11. The figure is over 70% of those  
who watch FOX News as their main source of News.]   (that is ridiculous, even Bush said they had nothing to do with it..though after he started he war!)

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I feel like I could really support at least 3 of the last 5  
Kerry positions on Iraq. Should it be the other two that  
worry me or the fact that there are five or more? -Patrick  

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I don't care if Kerry appears not to have a clear picture  
of the issues, I want Bush out of office. -Lady law  

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I listen to the news, go to websites, and many other  
sources.  I've determined that none of the candidates  
running are worthy of my vote.  So guess what?  I'm not  
voting! -No Knock  

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We are less safe now then we were before 9/11. George Bush  
has helped the Taliban by removing troops from Afghanistan  
to attack Iraq! -Falcon  

[Obviously you did not hear about our nabbing Yusef Islam -  
AKA Cat Stevens. THAT was a close call!]  

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Stop sending me this crap.  I did not subscribe and should  
not have to Unsubscribe. -MDE kidd  

[Friends, you can only get this polling newsletter by first  
voting in the poll. We cannot manually unsubscribe thousands  
of people, so if you do not wish to receive this,  
unsubscribe. You will not be added to any list!]  

------------------------  

No offense, but I think you are smoking something! I hope  
you aren't part of the Old Media mindset. I don't believe  
your results. -Julie  

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Who ARE you?  And what are your preferences?-LS Coin  

[We are an independent company who is participating in a  
grand experiment utilizing the Internet for gathering  
information. We think that we will be able to predict the  
election better than conventional polls, most of which have  
been wrong two elections in a row.]  


              End of Readers Comments  

This was only a representative sampling. Until next week,  
have a great week.  

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Comments, Questions? VISIT US AT:  
http://rd.gophercentral.com/al/a?aid=6802&ent=2052  

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***********************************************************  
Copyright 2004. All rights reserved.  
Feel free to forward this, in its entirety, to others.  

21st Century Campaigns  
77 West Wacker Drive #4800  
Chicago, Illinois 60601  

1 comment:

redbaranjj said...

Very interesting!! Thanks for sharing!!
Julie